Working Papers

The Evolution of the German Wage Distribution – Before and After the Great Recession 

with Christian Dustmann, Martin Friedrich and Uta Schönberg 

Revise and Resubmit – Quarterly Journal of Economics

Germany experienced a sharp rise in wage inequality in the two decades leading up to the Great Recession. However, a remarkable trend reversal occurred in 2010, well before the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015, when wages at the bottom started to grow more rapidly than wages higher up the wage distribution. This paper attributes this reversal to an increasingly tight labor market after the Great Recession caused by resurgent domestic demand, particularly for low-knowledge consumer services. In line with this hypothesis, we show that job-to-job transition rates and between-job wage growth markedly increased after the Great Recession, particularly for those at the lower rungs of the job ladder. Concurrently, workers relocated from firms paying very low wage premiums toward higher-paying firms, as predicted by a job ladder model. Moreover, job separation rates became more sensitive to wages and firm wage premiums after the Great Recession, indicating a decline in firms’ labor market power.

To Grant or Not To Grant? Lessons in Human Capital Investment from German Student Finance 

with Barbara Boelmann, Frauke Peter and Heike Spangenberg 

How do human capital investments respond to student finance induced changes in cost? In 1983, Germany moved from a system offering means-tested student finance as a mix of a grant and a loan to exclusively a loan. Exploiting this unique setting, we find human capital investments of low-income students to be highly cost-sensitive. Loans were interest-free and income-contingent repayment plans effectively insured individuals against adverse labour market outcomes. Our event study results reveal that despite these favourable conditions, the reform reduced enrolment rates amongst funding eligible students substantially, with pupils re-allocating into apprenticeship training instead. The contraction in enrolment was particularly pronounced in teacher training, which was geared for a career in the public sector, and much less so in subjects associated with higher labour market returns. Finally, we also document that individual level responses to the policy added up to unintended consequences at the aggregate level. As a product of the reform, access to university was narrowed for low-income students of all abilities and the overall supply of teachers contracted during a time when pupil numbers were expanding.

Work in Progress

Collective Bargaining Demands and Outcomes

with Alice Kügler and David Zentler-Munro

Accepted for Presentation – IR Berkeley Special Issue Symposium

Accessible Higher Education and Outside Options

with Julia Turner

Serial Entrepreneurship over the Business Cycle 

with Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, Marie Fuchs and Sophie Piton