Job Market Paper
To Grant or Not To Grant? Lessons in Human Capital Investment from German Student Finance – Download Paper
with Barbara Boelmann, Frauke Peter and Heike Spangenberg
Abstract
How do human capital investments respond to student finance induced changes in cost? In 1983, Germany moved from a system offering means-tested student finance as a mix of a grant and a loan to exclusively a loan. Exploiting this unique setting, we find human capital investments of low-income students to be highly cost-sensitive. Loans were interest-free and income-contingent repayment plans effectively insured individuals against adverse labour market outcomes. Our event study results reveal that despite these favourable conditions, the reform reduced enrolment rates amongst funding eligible students substantially, with pupils re-allocating into apprenticeship training instead. The contraction in enrolment was particularly pronounced in teacher training, which was geared for a career in the public sector, and much less so in subjects associated with higher labour market returns. Furthermore, we find that funding eligible students became increasingly concerned with being financially independent and exploring different career options before making a final commitment. These results suggest that reform impacts were mainly driven by increased costs, but reinforced by heightened debt concerns. Finally, we also document that individual level responses to the policy added up to unintended consequences at the aggregate level. As a product of the reform, access to university was narrowed for low-income students of all abilities and the overall supply of teachers contracted during a time when pupil numbers were expanding.
Working Papers
The Evolution of the German Wage Distribution – Before and After the Great Recession (submitted)
with Christian Dustmann and Uta Schönberg
Abstract
Germany experienced a sharp rise in wage inequality in the two decades leading up to the Great Recession. However, a remarkable trend reversal occurred in 2010, well before the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015, when wages at the bottom started to grow more rapidly than wages higher up the wage distribution. This paper attributes this reversal to an increasingly tight labor market after the Great Recession caused by resurgent domestic demand, particularly for low-knowledge consumer services. In line with this hypothesis, we show that job-to-job transition rates and between-job wage growth markedly increased after the Great Recession, particularly for those at the lower rungs of the job ladder. Concurrently, workers relocated from firms paying very low wage premiums toward higher-paying firms, as predicted by a job ladder model. Moreover, job separation rates became more sensitive to wages and firm wage premiums after the Great Recession, indicating a decline in firms’ labor market power.
Collective Bargaining Demands and Outcomes
with Alice Kügler and David Zentler-Munro
Work in Progress
Accessible Higher Education and Outside Options
with Julia Turner
Abstract
What impact do outside option values have on higher education enrolment decisions? We explore this important question using the case study of Universities of Applied Sciences (UAS) in Germany (comparable to US community colleges). To this end, we exploit the fact that wages paid during apprenticeships, the immediate outside option to UAS degrees, are a by-product of collective bargaining negotiations at the sector-industry level and thus quasi-exogenous with respect to UAS enrolment in a given region and subject area. Mapping sectors to UAS degrees, we then leverage variation in sectoral apprenticeship wage floors to measure individual’s sensitivity to changes in the opportunity cost of UAS enrolment.
Serial Entrepreneurship over the Business Cycle
with Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, Marie Fuchs and Sophie Piton